Posted by: Martin | December 19, 2010

Nightmare scenario

I had hoped that when the elections were over I could go back to write about my real estate venture again.  Even if Gbagbo had won it would be possible to do great business in the Ivory Coast.  But this is the nightmare scenario taking place right now, with an illegitimate Gbagbo staying in power by force and using systematic violence against civilians who oppose him, while the country runs into the ground economically.

It’s pretty clear that Gbagbo and his inner circle are not going to leave power unless forced to. The United Nations has the means to make him leave, but not the will, whereas the Force Nouvelles have the will but maybe not the means.

And even if Force Nouvelles have the means, the problem is that they don’t have a very good human rights record, and them removing Gbagbo would mean a civil war touching the southern half of the country.

The thing with violence is that it breeds hatred that breeds even more violence. This is a vicious circle that the Ivory Coast unfortunately seems to be embarking on.

Yesterday I saw this quite telling tweet:

fakegbagbo Ivorian soldier tells me in Abobo b/c of killings, stating “this is a soldier” is enough to get a mob to kill someone.#ivorycoast #civ2010

Maybe the most frustrating thing is that the United Nations are not protecting civilians (except those in Golf Hotel). One would think they could send a detachment to Abobo or somewhere to create a safe zone, but I guess that would mean a full on confrontation with Gbagbo’s forces and maybe also with large numbers of unarmed Gbgabo supporters which would be difficult for the UN to deal with.

I wouldn’t be surprised if large numbers of Gbagbo supporters will turn up outside Golf Hotel soon, and then the UN will have to deal with it anyway.

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Responses

  1. Blah Blah Goude is mobilizing his paid hooligans to apparently march to the Golf hotel. The UN needs to do something drastic the police assisted destruction of human lives begins… I think bringing in a a large contingent of foreign forces in Abidjan willl solve the problem. The Ivorian army will run away…

  2. I think Gbagbo has decided to use whatever means necessary to stay in power, considering he has no one left but the Gambian president to back him. I agree with Monkeydubious that foreign intervention is the only way to force him out and stop the violence. The question is whether we have to wait for attacks on white foreigners before someone acts. Have you seen the RHDP toll? Over 100 dead, more than 600 detained…

  3. Mmm, I have seen the RHDP toll. Feels like the main issue now isn’t about the election or democracy, but if there is any way to stop the Gbagbo regime from killing and abducting any more people.

    I’m worrying that there won’t be any foreign intervention anytime soon. I’d be surprised if the UN gets a mandate to take offensive action. Maybe there is more hope of some sort of ECOWAS force.


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