Posted by: Martin | December 6, 2010

Mr. Peace

I think I see what Gbagbo is trying to do. Now he ordered the curfew to be lifted and the borders to open, but kept blocking foreign media. And he got Ble Goude (his most hard line supporter) on tv to talk about Ivorians not using violence against each other and to calm down things.

Now that he is in power and an election result that shows him as a winner has been broadcast uncontested, Gbagbo wants things to go back to normal.   Because then it will look as if it is the other side that threatens the peace.

He will play the role of the man of peace and offer Ouattara and Bedie Prime Minister and Vice President positions. If they refuse it will look like they are against peace, and if they accept, well, then he stays president and can outmanouver them later.

Also any sanctions or economic blockade can be used as propaganda saying that Ouattara uses his foreign friends to destroy the Ivory Coast and make the country poor.

The upside of this is that it is suddenly not in Gbagbo’s interest any longer to initiate violence.  So northeners and opposition supporters in the south should have less to fear.

The downside is that it is not so easy to counter for Ouattara’s camp. And if they manage to counter it in some way that threatens Gbagbo’s power, then he will turn to violence again.

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