Posted by: Martin | November 16, 2010

Election number crunching

I’ve been crunching the numbers from the first round to get some sort of baseline idea of how the second round will go:

Assumptions

Bedie votes

  • 10% of those who voted Bedie in the first round will abstain.

Everybody is talking politics in the Ivory Coast now, both camps try to get people to vote, and Ouattara’s campaign is doing its utmost to show that Bedie is not out of the race. I don’t think there will be much extra abstentions among Bedie voters, maybe even less than 10%.

  • In Gbagbo’s strongest regions Bedie voters will split 60% – 40% in favour of Gbagbo.

In FPI heartland in the the south and south-east where Ouattara got low scores I believe Gbagbo has a good chance of obtaining Bedie votes. For example ex-PDCI minister Emile Bombet originating from Gbagbo’s region Agneby recently called PDCI voters to vote for Gbagbo. I’m putting 60-40 in Agneby, Sud Comoe, Fromager, Sud Bandama and Lagunes except Abidjan.

  • In Abidjan and regions with no clear winner Bedie voters will split 60% – 40% in favour of Ouattara

Here I think Bedie-voters will follow Bedie’s advice to vote Ouattara more often than not. These regions are the Sassandras, 18 Montagnes, Marahoue, Moyen Cavally, Moyen Comoe, Zanzan and the votes from abroad.

  • In Bedie heartland in the center and Ouattara’s strongest regions in the north west, Bedie voters will vote 70%/80% for Ouattara

After seeing Ouattara and Bedie together in Yamossoukro meeting a great number of Boule chiefs, it really looks like they’ll get the Bedie voters to vote Ouattara. Im putting 80-20 in the Lacs region and the north west, and 70-30 in N’Zi Comoe where Gbagbo scored better than Ouattara.

Mabri and Anaky

They are part of the RHDP alliance and seem safe votes for Ouattara. Im assuming 5% extra abstentions compared to the first round and 100% for Ouattara.

Other candidates

5% more abstentions compared to the first turn and 50% – 50% split between Gbagbo and Ouattara.

Gbagbo votes

No more abstentions than the first round.  A small number switching sides as discussed earlier making a 99-1 split in favour of Gbagbo.

Ouattara votes

No more abstentions than the first round. 100% for Ouattara. I think the proportion of Ouattara voters voting only due to money or a wish to be on the winning side, is smaller than for Gbagbo. Hence there is unlikely to be a significant amount of voters switching from Ouattara to Gbagbo.

Invalid votes

I think they will be less in the second round. There will be information campaigns, and a ballot with only two names is simpler than one with 14.  I’ll estimate that 50% of invalid votes in the first round will be valid in the second round, ignore the regions with no clear second round leader based on estimates above, and set 100% for Ouattara in regions where he is likely to be far ahead, and 100% for Gbagbo in his strongest regions.

Participation

The participation might well be higher (or lower)  in the second round, but I don’t have a clear idea of who might benefit from it (even including the Paris vote) , so I will not include this effect in the results.

First round results

Results

Adding it all up Ouattara gets:

1,481,081   [His own first round votes]

656,102   [Bedie votes]

122,867 [Mabri and Anaky votes]

40,546 [Votes from other candidates]

22,835 [Gbagbo voters switching to Ouattara]

33,436 [Ex-invalid votes in Ouattara regions]

Sum: 2,356,876  or 51.9%

And Gbagbo gets:

1,733,699 [99% of his own first round votes]

392,877 [Bedie votes]

40,546 [Votes from other candidates]

17,149 [Ex-invalid votes in Gbagbo regions]

Sum: 2,184,241 or 48.1%

A tight race

This would point to a tight race.  I have a feeling that if I’m right in the assumption that the Lacs region votes 80-20 or more for Ouattara, then Bedie voters in other regions will follow. If I change the assumptions to 70-30 for Ouattara in regions with no clear winner, and 50-50 in Gbagbo regions, then Ouattara wins with 53.4% vs 46.6%.

On the other hand, if I have over-estimated Bedie-voters willingness to vote for Ouattara and tilt voting assumptions 10 percentage points in favour of Gbagbo everywhere except in the north west (where there arent many Bedie-voters anyway), I get that Gbagbo wins by 50.4% vs 49.6%.

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