Prediction update

I need to make an update to the predictions two posts ago.   I think I either overestimated FPI’s sophistication in doing vote rigging or underestimated the UN’s ability to prevent it.

If it starts looking like Gbagbo isn’t first – I think a second place would not be acceptable to FPI  – I believe FPI might have their representatives at the voting stations to refuse to sign off the results, and then bring out militia groups on the streets to create a situation where real election results can’t be announced.

The “50% Gbagbo wins in the first round” was based on FPI being pretty good at vote rigging, which I am not so sure about any more.

And the “48% Gbagbo vs Outtara/Bedie” scenario was based on Gbagbo coming in first. If the real first round result is that Ouattara is first and Gbagbo second, then I’m afraid it might turn violent.

No initial results have yet been reported, as far as I have seen, but the political parties have representatives in voting stations and by now they should start getting an idea of the results.

I’m not sure how it’s going to be done, but it would be good if each voting station could report its results directly to be broadcast on the radio like in Senegal. That way the actual results will be out in the public, making it more difficult to fabricate a different result.

The voting seems to have gone down peacefully which is great, but I am starting to have a bad feeling about what’s going to happen next.

UPDATE: I just listened to the vice president of the Electoral Commmission (CEI) on Onuci FM. He said that local level results would be announced, but asked people to be patient, saying that they need to verify all results carefully before announcing them.

Additionally, I expect the UN to have put in quite a lot of planning for a scenario with violence and militias /army on the streets.  Ah, I’m used to thinking about elections in Sweden where you don’t really need include any military aspects. This is a whole lot more complex.

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One thought on “Prediction update

  1. interesting…
    I think the FPI will arrive first, at least with this first round, even if I have doubts about their ability to rig.
    I’m surprised about how well the events have occured so far (sunday evening), it’s been pleasant to see how many people were eager to vote today (i’ve heard at least 65% participation).
    However, i think the problems will arise when the results are announced, as one of the three main candidates will be left out tonight (i predict between HKB and ADO).

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